NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nordic Partners#118 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Black Phoenix#57 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nordic Partners ban
40%67%
Nordic Partners · 1 mapedge Black Phoenix +27%Black Phoenix · 17 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
50%47%
Nordic Partners · 0 mapsnearly even +3%Black Phoenix · 11 maps
InfernoBlack Phoenix pick
33%58%
Nordic Partners · 2 mapsedge Black Phoenix +25%Black Phoenix · 8 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
57%22%
Nordic Partners · 3 mapsedge Nordic Partners +35%Black Phoenix · 5 maps
NukeNordic Partners ban
50%42%
Nordic Partners · 0 mapsedge Nordic Partners +8%Black Phoenix · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%60%
Nordic Partners · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +10%Black Phoenix · 6 maps
DefaultNordic Partners pick
50%43%
Nordic Partners · 0 mapsedge Nordic Partners +7%Black Phoenix · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNordic Partners remove Dust2
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
3. PickNordic Partners take Default
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Inferno
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanNordic Partners remove Nuke
DeciderCache (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Nordic Partners 55%Black Phoenix 45%
The model gave 55% on Nordic Partners — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Nordic Partners 84%Black Phoenix 16%
The model gave 84% on Nordic Partners — the map was taken by Nordic Partners.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
Nordic Partners 40%Black Phoenix 60%
The model gave 60% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 52%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3