FRAG St. Clair 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNRG pick
44%50%
NRG · 5 mapsedge Eh +6%Eh · 0 maps
NukeEh ban
44%50%
NRG · 5 mapsedge Eh +6%Eh · 0 maps
InfernoNRG ban
38%50%
NRG · 4 mapsedge Eh +12%Eh · 0 maps
MirageEh ban
50%50%
NRG · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Eh · 0 maps
OverpassEh pick
33%50%
NRG · 2 mapsedge Eh +17%Eh · 0 maps
Dust2NRG ban
40%50%
NRG · 1 mapedge Eh +10%Eh · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Dust2
2. BanEh remove Mirage
3. PickNRG take Ancient
4. PickEh take Overpass
5. BanEh remove Nuke
6. BanNRG remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:1
NRG 47%Eh 53%
The model gave 53% on Eh — the map was taken by NRG.
Cacheprediction correct13:3
NRG 53%Eh 47%
The model gave 53% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 85%
Series resultNRG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2