StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · win 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNRG ban
44%64%
NRG · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +20%Marsborne · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
44%60%
NRG · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +16%Marsborne · 6 maps
InfernoMarsborne pick
50%73%
NRG · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +23%Marsborne · 7 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
55%50%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +5%Marsborne · 0 maps
OverpassNRG ban
40%50%
NRG · 1 mapedge Marsborne +10%Marsborne · 4 maps
AnubisMarsborne ban
50%63%
NRG · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Marsborne · 4 maps
CacheNRG pick
67%40%
NRG · 2 mapsedge NRG +27%Marsborne · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Overpass
2. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
3. PickNRG take Cache
4. PickMarsborne take Inferno
5. BanMarsborne remove Anubis
6. BanNRG remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (44% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
NRG 32%Marsborne 68%
The model gave 68% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
NRG 53%Marsborne 47%
The model gave 53% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
NRG 27%Marsborne 73%
The model gave 73% on Marsborne — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 73%
Series resultNRG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3