Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Phantom#88 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
54%59%
NRG · 9 mapsedge Phantom +5%Phantom · 13 maps
AncientPhantom pick
42%59%
NRG · 8 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 13 maps
MiragePhantom ban
55%43%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +12%Phantom · 10 maps
Dust2NRG ban
57%53%
NRG · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Phantom · 13 maps
OverpassNRG ban
40%67%
NRG · 1 mapedge Phantom +27%Phantom · 8 maps
CacheNRG pick
82%40%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +42%Phantom · 1 map
InfernoPhantom ban
50%67%
NRG · 6 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Overpass
2. BanPhantom remove Mirage
3. PickNRG take Cache
4. PickPhantom take Ancient
5. BanPhantom remove Inferno
6. BanNRG remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (54% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
NRG 31%Phantom 69%
The model gave 69% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
NRG 64%Phantom 36%
The model gave 64% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
NRG 33%Phantom 67%
The model gave 67% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 53%
Series resultPhantom 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3