BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernoex-Zero Tenacity pick
60%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapnearly even +3%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +17%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES pick
50%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +7%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES ban
40%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
60%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Defaultex-Zero Tenacity ban
50%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
50%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +10%ex-Zero Tenacity · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Anubis
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Inferno
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Default
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Nuclear TigeRES 37%ex-Zero Tenacity 63%
The model gave 63% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Nuclear TigeRES 53%ex-Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 52%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2