IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#45 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
70%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 16 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +8%HEROIC · 9 maps
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
50%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +12%HEROIC · 9 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
73%71%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsnearly even +2%HEROIC · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%55%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +5%HEROIC · 7 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
63%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 15 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +13%HEROIC · 0 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
30%70%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge HEROIC +40%HEROIC · 6 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
71%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +31%HEROIC · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickHEROIC take Inferno
5. BanHEROIC remove Cache
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Nuclear TigeRES 62%HEROIC 38%
The model gave 62% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Dust2prediction correct17:19
Nuclear TigeRES 36%HEROIC 64%
The model gave 64% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 63%
Series resultHEROIC 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2