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NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
K27#44 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
76%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +26%K27 · 2 maps
Dust2K27 pick
50%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 12 mapsedge K27 +7%K27 · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
54%56%
Nuclear TigeRES · 9 mapsnearly even -2%K27 · 5 maps
NukeK27 ban
58%38%
Nuclear TigeRES · 8 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +20%K27 · 4 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
75%43%
Nuclear TigeRES · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +32%K27 · 3 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
50%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsnearly even +0%K27 · 4 maps
InfernoK27 ban
67%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%K27 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
2. BanK27 remove Inferno
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. PickK27 take Dust2
5. BanK27 remove Nuke
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (54% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Nuclear TigeRES 78%K27 22%
The model gave 78% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by K27.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Nuclear TigeRES 79%K27 21%
The model gave 79% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Nuclear TigeRES 70%K27 30%
The model gave 70% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 60%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3