WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MMagnumloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
63%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 20 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +13%Magnum · 0 maps
Dust2Magnum pick
36%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 18 mapsedge Magnum +14%Magnum · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
47%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 15 mapsnearly even -3%Magnum · 0 maps
InfernoMagnum ban
76%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +26%Magnum · 0 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
46%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Magnum · 0 maps
CacheMagnum ban
56%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%Magnum · 0 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
22%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Magnum +28%Magnum · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanMagnum remove Inferno
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickMagnum take Dust2
5. BanMagnum remove Cache
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:1
Nuclear TigeRES 34%Magnum 66%
The model gave 66% on Magnum — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Infernoprediction correct13:2
Nuclear TigeRES 79%Magnum 21%
The model gave 79% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 79%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2