European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Oxuji#173 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
50%47%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsnearly even +3%Oxuji · 15 maps
NukeOxuji pick
55%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 7 mapsedge Oxuji +7%Oxuji · 17 maps
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
58%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 8 mapsnearly even -4%Oxuji · 9 maps
AnubisOxuji ban
71%43%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +28%Oxuji · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
75%55%
Nuclear TigeRES · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +20%Oxuji · 7 maps
InfernoOxuji ban
67%33%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +34%Oxuji · 8 maps
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
50%75%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +25%Oxuji · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
2. BanOxuji remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickOxuji take Nuke
5. BanOxuji remove Inferno
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (75% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Nuclear TigeRES 79%Oxuji 21%
The model gave 79% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
Nuclear TigeRES 50%Oxuji 50%
The model gave 50% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Ancientprediction correct1:13
Nuclear TigeRES 47%Oxuji 53%
The model gave 53% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 75%
Series resultOxuji 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3