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1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PRIVATE#66 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPRIVATE pick
63%71%
Nuclear TigeRES · 20 mapsedge PRIVATE +8%PRIVATE · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
46%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 22 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%PRIVATE · 1 map
AnubisPRIVATE ban
52%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 17 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +12%PRIVATE · 1 map
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
74%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 15 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +24%PRIVATE · 0 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
43%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge PRIVATE +7%PRIVATE · 2 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
22%71%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge PRIVATE +49%PRIVATE · 3 maps
CachePRIVATE ban
56%40%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +16%PRIVATE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanPRIVATE remove Anubis
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
4. PickPRIVATE take Ancient
5. BanPRIVATE remove Cache
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (46% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
Nuclear TigeRES 65%PRIVATE 35%
The model gave 65% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
Nuclear TigeRES 53%PRIVATE 47%
The model gave 53% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 68%
Series resultPRIVATE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2