IEM Beijing 2026 Open Qualifier · BO1
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#65 in the world · win 16:13series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 16:13
Spirit Academy#107 in the world · loss 13:16The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
53%54%
Nuclear TigeRES · 11 mapsnearly even -1%Spirit Academy · 9 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
53%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Spirit Academy · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%78%
Nuclear TigeRES · 10 mapsedge Spirit Academy +21%Spirit Academy · 5 maps
AnubisSpirit Academy ban
67%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Spirit Academy · 1 map
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
38%29%
Nuclear TigeRES · 4 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +9%Spirit Academy · 3 maps
InfernoSpirit Academy ban
71%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +21%Spirit Academy · 0 maps
CacheSpirit Academy ban
60%60%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapnearly even +0%Spirit Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanSpirit Academy remove Inferno
3. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
4. BanSpirit Academy remove Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
6. BanSpirit Academy remove Cache
DeciderAncient (57% / 78%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct16:13
Nuclear TigeRES 50%Spirit Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit Academy · 53%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 16:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1