NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#53 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UNiTY#73 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES ban
50%59%
Nuclear TigeRES · 30 mapsedge UNiTY +9%UNiTY · 18 maps
AncientUNiTY pick
69%68%
Nuclear TigeRES · 25 mapsnearly even +1%UNiTY · 21 map
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
71%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 17 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +9%UNiTY · 17 maps
Anubispossible decider
59%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 23 mapsnearly even -3%UNiTY · 9 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
33%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge UNiTY +29%UNiTY · 22 maps
CacheUNiTY ban
60%47%
Nuclear TigeRES · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +13%UNiTY · 15 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
59%29%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +30%UNiTY · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
4. PickUNiTY take Ancient
5. BanUNiTY remove Cache
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (59% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Nuclear TigeRES 48%UNiTY 52%
The model gave 52% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Nuclear TigeRES 51%UNiTY 49%
The model gave 51% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Infernoprediction correct19:16
Nuclear TigeRES 61%UNiTY 39%
The model gave 61% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 57%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3