BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
40%69%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Walczaki +29%Walczaki · 12 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
63%70%
Nuclear TigeRES · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%64%
Nuclear TigeRES · 2 mapsnearly even +3%Walczaki · 7 maps
MirageWalczaki pick
60%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 5 maps
InfernoWalczaki ban
60%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Walczaki · 4 maps
DefaultNuclear TigeRES ban
50%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 3 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
60%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 1 mapedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
4. PickWalczaki take Mirage
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Default
DeciderAncient (67% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Nuclear TigeRES 21%Walczaki 79%
The model gave 79% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
Nuclear TigeRES 45%Walczaki 55%
The model gave 55% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 71%
Series resultWalczaki 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2