CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
NuTorious#202 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arctic Aceloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientArctic Ace pick
31%50%
NuTorious · 9 mapsedge Arctic Ace +19%Arctic Ace · 0 maps
InfernoNuTorious pick
33%50%
NuTorious · 8 mapsedge Arctic Ace +17%Arctic Ace · 0 maps
MirageArctic Ace ban
50%50%
NuTorious · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Arctic Ace · 0 maps
CacheArctic Ace ban
43%50%
NuTorious · 3 mapsedge Arctic Ace +7%Arctic Ace · 0 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
43%50%
NuTorious · 3 mapsedge Arctic Ace +7%Arctic Ace · 0 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
33%50%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge Arctic Ace +17%Arctic Ace · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
2. BanArctic Ace remove Mirage
3. PickNuTorious take Inferno
4. PickArctic Ace take Ancient
5. BanArctic Ace remove Cache
6. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed16:13
NuTorious 40%Arctic Ace 60%
The model gave 60% on Arctic Ace — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
NuTorious 53%Arctic Ace 47%
The model gave 53% on NuTorious — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuTorious · 53%
Series resultNuTorious 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2