NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
NuTorious#204 in the world · loss 14:16series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 14:16
DETONATE#193 in the world · win 16:14The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
44%44%
NuTorious · 5 mapsnearly even +0%DETONATE · 5 maps
MirageDETONATE ban
63%44%
NuTorious · 4 mapsedge NuTorious +19%DETONATE · 5 maps
AncientDETONATE ban
30%60%
NuTorious · 6 mapsedge DETONATE +30%DETONATE · 1 map
AnubisNuTorious ban
33%33%
NuTorious · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DETONATE · 5 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
40%43%
NuTorious · 1 mapnearly even -3%DETONATE · 3 maps
CacheDETONATE ban
50%40%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge NuTorious +10%DETONATE · 1 map
Dust2NuTorious ban
50%40%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge NuTorious +10%DETONATE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
2. BanDETONATE remove Ancient
3. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
4. BanDETONATE remove Cache
5. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
6. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (44% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed14:16
NuTorious 60%DETONATE 40%
The model gave 60% on NuTorious — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuTorious · 62%
Series resultDETONATE 14:16
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1