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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NuTorious#202 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
57%58%
NuTorious · 3 mapsnearly even -1%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
AncientNuTorious pick
43%33%
NuTorious · 3 mapsedge NuTorious +10%Overtake Sector · 5 maps
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
50%38%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge NuTorious +12%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
50%67%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +17%Overtake Sector · 5 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
40%50%
NuTorious · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
NuTorious · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
40%50%
NuTorious · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickNuTorious take Ancient
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
6. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
NuTorious 57%Overtake Sector 43%
The model gave 57% on NuTorious — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
NuTorious 65%Overtake Sector 35%
The model gave 65% on NuTorious — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
NuTorious 50%Overtake Sector 50%
The model gave 50% on NuTorious — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 50%
Series resultOvertake Sector 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3