FRAG St. Clair 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NuTorious#202 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
seoulloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageseoul ban
43%50%
NuTorious · 3 mapsedge seoul +7%seoul · 0 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
50%50%
NuTorious · 2 mapsnearly even +0%seoul · 0 maps
Ancientseoul pick
40%50%
NuTorious · 1 mapedge seoul +10%seoul · 0 maps
NukeNuTorious pick
40%50%
NuTorious · 1 mapedge seoul +10%seoul · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
2. Banseoul remove Mirage
3. PickNuTorious take Nuke
4. Pickseoul take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
NuTorious 40%seoul 60%
The model gave 60% on seoul — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
NuTorious 43%seoul 57%
The model gave 57% on seoul — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuTorious · 55%
Series resultNuTorious 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2