FRAG St. Clair 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NuTorious#202 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Villainous#198 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageVillainous ban
50%40%
NuTorious · 4 mapsedge NuTorious +10%Villainous · 1 map
AncientNuTorious pick
43%40%
NuTorious · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Villainous · 1 map
InfernoVillainous pick
50%63%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge Villainous +13%Villainous · 4 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
50%43%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge NuTorious +7%Villainous · 3 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
50%40%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge NuTorious +10%Villainous · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
33%60%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge Villainous +27%Villainous · 1 map
CacheNuTorious ban
50%60%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
2. BanVillainous remove Dust2
3. PickNuTorious take Ancient
4. PickVillainous take Inferno
5. BanVillainous remove Mirage
6. BanNuTorious remove Cache
DeciderNuke (33% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
NuTorious 54%Villainous 46%
The model gave 54% on NuTorious — the map was taken by Villainous.
Infernoprediction correct21:25
NuTorious 40%Villainous 60%
The model gave 60% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 51%
Series resultVillainous 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2