CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
NuTorious#202 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
33%64%
NuTorious · 8 mapsedge Without a Roof +31%Without a Roof · 10 maps
AncientWithout a Roof pick
33%50%
NuTorious · 8 mapsedge Without a Roof +17%Without a Roof · 8 maps
MirageNuTorious pick
55%62%
NuTorious · 7 mapsedge Without a Roof +7%Without a Roof · 9 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
43%50%
NuTorious · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +7%Without a Roof · 6 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
50%40%
NuTorious · 0 mapsedge NuTorious +10%Without a Roof · 6 maps
CacheNuTorious ban
43%40%
NuTorious · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Without a Roof · 1 map
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
33%60%
NuTorious · 2 mapsedge Without a Roof +27%Without a Roof · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickNuTorious take Mirage
4. PickWithout a Roof take Ancient
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
6. BanNuTorious remove Cache
DeciderInferno (33% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
NuTorious 31%Without a Roof 69%
The model gave 69% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
NuTorious 46%Without a Roof 54%
The model gave 54% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 68%
Series resultWithout a Roof 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2