Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nyxonloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
A Great Chaos#187 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageA Great Chaos pick
50%38%
Nyxon · 0 mapsedge Nyxon +12%A Great Chaos · 4 maps
NukeNyxon pick
40%50%
Nyxon · 1 mapedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 2 maps
Dust2Nyxon ban
50%50%
Nyxon · 0 mapsnearly even +0%A Great Chaos · 2 maps
OverpassA Great Chaos ban
40%40%
Nyxon · 1 mapnearly even +0%A Great Chaos · 1 map
AncientA Great Chaos ban
50%40%
Nyxon · 0 mapsedge Nyxon +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
AnubisNyxon ban
50%60%
Nyxon · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNyxon remove Dust2
2. BanA Great Chaos remove Ancient
3. PickNyxon take Nuke
4. PickA Great Chaos take Mirage
5. BanA Great Chaos remove Overpass
6. BanNyxon remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Nyxon 43%A Great Chaos 57%
The model gave 57% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by A Great Chaos.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Nyxon 60%A Great Chaos 40%
The model gave 60% on Nyxon — the map was taken by A Great Chaos.
Model check result
Model favoriteA Great Chaos · 50%
Series resultA Great Chaos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2