Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nyxonloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
A Great Chaoswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nyxon ban
50%40%
Nyxon · 0 mapsedge Nyxon +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
MirageA Great Chaos pick
50%40%
Nyxon · 0 mapsedge Nyxon +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
NukeNyxon pick
40%50%
Nyxon · 1 mapedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
OverpassA Great Chaos ban
40%50%
Nyxon · 1 mapedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNyxon remove Dust2
2. BanA Great Chaos remove Overpass
3. PickNyxon take Nuke
4. PickA Great Chaos take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Nyxon 43%A Great Chaos 57%
The model gave 57% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by A Great Chaos.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Nyxon 57%A Great Chaos 43%
The model gave 57% on Nyxon — the map was taken by A Great Chaos.
Model check result
Model favoriteNyxon · 50%
Series resultA Great Chaos 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2