ESL Challenger League Season 51 South America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ODDIK#111 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ODDIK pick
60%60%
ODDIK · 1 mapnearly even +0%Fake do Biru · 1 map
DefaultFake do Biru ban
60%50%
ODDIK · 1 mapedge ODDIK +10%Fake do Biru · 0 maps
NukeODDIK ban
50%60%
ODDIK · 0 mapsedge Fake do Biru +10%Fake do Biru · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanODDIK remove Nuke
2. BanFake do Biru remove Default
3. PickODDIK take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
ODDIK 47%Fake do Biru 53%
The model gave 53% on Fake do Biru — the map was taken by ODDIK.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
ODDIK 53%Fake do Biru 47%
The model gave 53% on ODDIK — the map was taken by Fake do Biru.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
ODDIK 50%Fake do Biru 50%
The model gave 50% on ODDIK — the map was taken by Fake do Biru.
Model check result
Model favoriteFake do Biru · 73%
Series resultFake do Biru 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3