Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeJust Players ban
50%42%
OG · 2 mapsedge OG +8%Just Players · 8 maps
AncientOG ban
50%54%
OG · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Just Players · 9 maps
MirageJust Players pick
50%62%
OG · 0 mapsedge Just Players +12%Just Players · 9 maps
Dust2Just Players ban
50%42%
OG · 0 mapsedge OG +8%Just Players · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%67%
OG · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 5 maps
AnubisOG ban
50%67%
OG · 0 mapsedge Just Players +17%Just Players · 2 maps
DefaultOG pick
50%40%
OG · 0 mapsedge OG +10%Just Players · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Anubis
2. BanJust Players remove Nuke
3. PickOG take Default
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Dust2
6. BanOG remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
OG 36%Just Players 64%
The model gave 64% on Just Players — the map was taken by OG.
Overpassprediction correct13:9
OG 53%Just Players 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2