Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
OG#203 in the world · win 13:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 13:2
Orion Wanderersloss 2:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Orion Wanderers ban
73%40%
OG · 11 mapsedge OG +33%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
50%40%
OG · 8 mapsedge OG +10%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
MirageOG ban
58%50%
OG · 8 mapsedge OG +8%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
AncientOrion Wanderers ban
60%40%
OG · 6 mapsedge OG +20%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
InfernoOrion Wanderers ban
27%50%
OG · 7 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +23%Orion Wanderers · 0 maps
CacheOG ban
33%40%
OG · 5 mapsedge Orion Wanderers +7%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
AnubisOG ban
50%40%
OG · 0 mapsedge OG +10%Orion Wanderers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOG remove Anubis
2. BanOrion Wanderers remove Inferno
3. BanOG remove Cache
4. BanOrion Wanderers remove Dust2
5. BanOG remove Mirage
6. BanOrion Wanderers remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
OG 80%Orion Wanderers 20%
The model gave 80% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 75%
Series resultOG 13:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1