ESL Challenger League Season 51 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
OLDBOYS PLwin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eaters#93 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOLDBOYS PL ban
50%40%
OLDBOYS PL · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
NukeRune Eaters ban
50%40%
OLDBOYS PL · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Mirage
2. BanRune Eaters remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
OLDBOYS PL 53%Rune Eaters 47%
The model gave 53% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
OLDBOYS PL 57%Rune Eaters 43%
The model gave 57% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 57%
Series resultOLDBOYS PL 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2