European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
OlyBet#225 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2OlyBet pick
50%40%
OlyBet · 4 mapsedge OlyBet +10%Subtop De France · 1 map
InfernoOlyBet ban
33%33%
OlyBet · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Subtop De France · 2 maps
NukeSubtop De France pick
50%50%
OlyBet · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Subtop De France · 0 maps
AncientSubtop De France ban
67%40%
OlyBet · 2 mapsedge OlyBet +27%Subtop De France · 1 map
MirageSubtop De France ban
67%50%
OlyBet · 2 mapsedge OlyBet +17%Subtop De France · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOlyBet remove Inferno
2. BanSubtop De France remove Mirage
3. PickOlyBet take Dust2
4. PickSubtop De France take Nuke
5. BanSubtop De France remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
OlyBet 57%Subtop De France 43%
The model gave 57% on OlyBet — the map was taken by OlyBet.
Cacheprediction missed2:13
OlyBet 53%Subtop De France 47%
The model gave 53% on OlyBet — the map was taken by Subtop De France.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
OlyBet 50%Subtop De France 50%
The model gave 50% on OlyBet — the map was taken by Subtop De France.
Model check result
Model favoriteOlyBet · 50%
Series resultSubtop De France 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3