ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Olympus#190 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Omen#216 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOmen ban
50%40%
Olympus · 2 mapsedge Olympus +10%Omen · 1 map
InfernoOlympus ban
50%60%
Olympus · 2 mapsedge Omen +10%Omen · 1 map
AnubisOmen pick
40%60%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Omen +20%Omen · 1 map
MirageOmen ban
60%50%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Olympus +10%Omen · 0 maps
NukeOlympus pick
60%50%
Olympus · 1 mapedge Olympus +10%Omen · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOlympus remove Inferno
2. BanOmen remove Mirage
3. PickOlympus take Nuke
4. PickOmen take Anubis
5. BanOmen remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Olympus 28%Omen 72%
The model gave 72% on Omen — the map was taken by Omen.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Olympus 53%Omen 47%
The model gave 53% on Olympus — the map was taken by Olympus.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Olympus 60%Omen 40%
The model gave 60% on Olympus — the map was taken by Olympus.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmen · 55%
Series resultOlympus 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3