1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega#148 in the world · win 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Omega pick
70%33%
Omega · 6 mapsedge Omega +37%Dark Moon · 2 maps
AncientDark Moon ban
67%40%
Omega · 5 mapsedge Omega +27%Dark Moon · 1 map
MirageDark Moon pick
50%40%
Omega · 4 mapsedge Omega +10%Dark Moon · 1 map
NukeDark Moon ban
44%50%
Omega · 5 mapsedge Dark Moon +6%Dark Moon · 0 maps
OverpassOmega ban
29%50%
Omega · 3 mapsedge Dark Moon +21%Dark Moon · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOmega remove Overpass
2. BanDark Moon remove Ancient
3. PickOmega take Dust2
4. PickDark Moon take Mirage
5. BanDark Moon remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Omega 81%Dark Moon 19%
The model gave 81% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
Omega 77%Dark Moon 23%
The model gave 77% on Omega — the map was taken by Omega.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega · 58%
Series resultOmega 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2