European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Oramond#119 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisEntropy pick
50%50%
Oramond · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 2 maps
MirageOramond pick
60%40%
Oramond · 6 mapsedge Oramond +20%Entropy · 1 map
Dust2Entropy ban
40%50%
Oramond · 6 mapsedge Entropy +10%Entropy · 0 maps
NukeEntropy ban
43%50%
Oramond · 3 mapsedge Entropy +7%Entropy · 0 maps
OverpassOramond ban
50%40%
Oramond · 2 mapsedge Oramond +10%Entropy · 1 map
AncientOramond ban
60%60%
Oramond · 1 mapnearly even +0%Entropy · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
Oramond · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Entropy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOramond remove Ancient
2. BanEntropy remove Dust2
3. PickOramond take Mirage
4. PickEntropy take Anubis
5. BanEntropy remove Nuke
6. BanOramond remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Oramond 72%Entropy 28%
The model gave 72% on Oramond — the map was taken by Oramond.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
Oramond 47%Entropy 53%
The model gave 53% on Entropy — the map was taken by Oramond.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntropy · 54%
Series resultOramond 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2