ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
OverKnight#262 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheOverKnight ban
50%40%
OverKnight · 0 mapsedge OverKnight +10%Desi Boyz · 1 map
NukeDesi Boyz ban
50%40%
OverKnight · 0 mapsedge OverKnight +10%Desi Boyz · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOverKnight remove Cache
2. BanDesi Boyz remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
OverKnight 53%Desi Boyz 47%
The model gave 53% on OverKnight — the map was taken by Desi Boyz.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
OverKnight 47%Desi Boyz 53%
The model gave 53% on Desi Boyz — the map was taken by OverKnight.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
OverKnight 50%Desi Boyz 50%
The model gave 50% on OverKnight — the map was taken by Desi Boyz.
Model check result
Model favoriteDesi Boyz · 63%
Series resultDesi Boyz 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3