ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
40%58%
Overtake Sector · 6 mapsedge Chicken Coop +18%Chicken Coop · 8 maps
Dust2Chicken Coop ban
60%55%
Overtake Sector · 6 mapsedge Overtake Sector +5%Chicken Coop · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
36%67%
Overtake Sector · 7 mapsedge Chicken Coop +31%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
MirageOvertake Sector pick
62%60%
Overtake Sector · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Chicken Coop · 1 map
OverpassChicken Coop pick
50%63%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +13%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
57%40%
Overtake Sector · 3 mapsedge Overtake Sector +17%Chicken Coop · 1 map
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%57%
Overtake Sector · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Chicken Coop · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
2. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
5. BanChicken Coop remove Dust2
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (36% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Overtake Sector 55%Chicken Coop 45%
The model gave 55% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
Overtake Sector 30%Chicken Coop 70%
The model gave 70% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 57%
Series resultOvertake Sector 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2