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CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
F5#208 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageF5 ban
72%50%
Overtake Sector · 14 mapsedge Overtake Sector +22%F5 · 0 maps
InfernoF5 ban
53%50%
Overtake Sector · 11 mapsnearly even +3%F5 · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsnearly even +0%F5 · 0 maps
Dust2Overtake Sector ban
42%50%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsedge F5 +8%F5 · 0 maps
CacheOvertake Sector pick
63%50%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%F5 · 0 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
57%50%
Overtake Sector · 3 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%F5 · 0 maps
OverpassF5 pick
40%50%
Overtake Sector · 1 mapedge F5 +10%F5 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
2. BanF5 remove Mirage
3. PickOvertake Sector take Cache
4. PickF5 take Overpass
5. BanF5 remove Inferno
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Overtake Sector 75%F5 25%
The model gave 75% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Overtake Sector 47%F5 53%
The model gave 53% on F5 — the map was taken by F5.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Overtake Sector 42%F5 58%
The model gave 58% on F5 — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 51%
Series resultOvertake Sector 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3