ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
68%57%
Overtake Sector · 21 mapedge Overtake Sector +11%Iowa Stormboar · 17 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar pick
38%63%
Overtake Sector · 9 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +25%Iowa Stormboar · 12 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
53%30%
Overtake Sector · 15 mapsedge Overtake Sector +23%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%55%
Overtake Sector · 10 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +5%Iowa Stormboar · 7 maps
CacheOvertake Sector ban
56%60%
Overtake Sector · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%42%
Overtake Sector · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +8%Iowa Stormboar · 8 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%29%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +21%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Dust2
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
Overtake Sector 25%Iowa Stormboar 75%
The model gave 75% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Overtake Sector 64%Iowa Stormboar 36%
The model gave 64% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 66%
Series resultOvertake Sector 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2