ESEA Advanced Season 58 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NuTorious#202 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
71%60%
Overtake Sector · 13 mapsedge Overtake Sector +11%NuTorious · 6 maps
InfernoNuTorious pick
50%36%
Overtake Sector · 10 mapsedge Overtake Sector +14%NuTorious · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%33%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsedge Overtake Sector +17%NuTorious · 8 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
42%50%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsedge NuTorious +8%NuTorious · 0 maps
CacheOvertake Sector ban
63%43%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +20%NuTorious · 3 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
57%33%
Overtake Sector · 3 mapsedge Overtake Sector +24%NuTorious · 2 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%43%
Overtake Sector · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%NuTorious · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
2. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. PickNuTorious take Inferno
5. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Overtake Sector 64%NuTorious 36%
The model gave 64% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
Overtake Sector 61%NuTorious 39%
The model gave 61% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 67%
Series resultOvertake Sector 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2