CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
65%70%
Overtake Sector · 19 mapsedge Without a Roof +5%Without a Roof · 16 maps
InfernoWithout a Roof pick
53%67%
Overtake Sector · 13 mapsedge Without a Roof +14%Without a Roof · 14 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
Overtake Sector · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 12 maps
Dust2possible decider
42%50%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsedge Without a Roof +8%Without a Roof · 8 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%58%
Overtake Sector · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +8%Without a Roof · 8 maps
CacheWithout a Roof ban
63%57%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +6%Without a Roof · 3 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
50%60%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Without a Roof · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. PickWithout a Roof take Inferno
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Cache
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (42% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
Overtake Sector 48%Without a Roof 52%
The model gave 52% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Overtake Sector 33%Without a Roof 67%
The model gave 67% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Overtake Sector 42%Without a Roof 58%
The model gave 58% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 63%
Series resultWithout a Roof 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3