European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Oxuji#173 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
44%69%
Oxuji · 14 mapsedge Misa +25%Misa · 12 maps
NukeOxuji pick
60%50%
Oxuji · 16 mapsedge Oxuji +10%Misa · 8 maps
MirageMisa ban
55%46%
Oxuji · 7 mapsedge Oxuji +9%Misa · 9 maps
InfernoOxuji ban
33%40%
Oxuji · 8 mapsedge Misa +7%Misa · 6 maps
AncientMisa ban
62%50%
Oxuji · 9 mapsedge Oxuji +12%Misa · 0 maps
AnubisOxuji ban
43%38%
Oxuji · 3 mapsedge Oxuji +5%Misa · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
75%60%
Oxuji · 4 mapsedge Oxuji +15%Misa · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOxuji remove Anubis
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickOxuji take Nuke
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanOxuji remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (75% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Oxuji 24%Misa 76%
The model gave 76% on Misa — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Oxuji 63%Misa 37%
The model gave 63% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Model check result
Model favoriteOxuji · 57%
Series resultOxuji 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2