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CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN Academy#286 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2paiN Academy ban
40%50%
paiN Academy · 11 mapsedge Grêmio +10%Grêmio · 6 maps
MiragepaiN Academy pick
47%38%
paiN Academy · 13 mapsedge paiN Academy +9%Grêmio · 4 maps
CacheGrêmio ban
38%38%
paiN Academy · 9 mapsnearly even +0%Grêmio · 4 maps
InfernopaiN Academy ban
30%55%
paiN Academy · 6 mapsedge Grêmio +25%Grêmio · 7 maps
NukeGrêmio pick
43%43%
paiN Academy · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Grêmio · 3 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
55%50%
paiN Academy · 7 mapsedge paiN Academy +5%Grêmio · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
75%67%
paiN Academy · 4 mapsedge paiN Academy +8%Grêmio · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN Academy remove Inferno
2. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
3. PickpaiN Academy take Mirage
4. PickGrêmio take Nuke
5. BanGrêmio remove Cache
6. BanpaiN Academy remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (75% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
paiN Academy 63%Grêmio 37%
The model gave 63% on paiN Academy — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
paiN Academy 24%Grêmio 76%
The model gave 76% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
paiN Academy 40%Grêmio 60%
The model gave 60% on Grêmio — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrêmio · 52%
Series resultpaiN Academy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3