BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN Academy#286 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
39%50%
paiN Academy · 14 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +11%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
Dust2MEIA NOITE pick
44%60%
paiN Academy · 12 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +16%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
NukepaiN Academy ban
36%40%
paiN Academy · 7 mapsnearly even -4%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
AnubisMEIA NOITE ban
55%50%
paiN Academy · 7 mapsedge paiN Academy +5%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
InfernopaiN Academy ban
50%50%
paiN Academy · 6 mapsnearly even +0%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
38%50%
paiN Academy · 4 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +12%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
DefaultpaiN Academy pick
75%50%
paiN Academy · 4 mapsedge paiN Academy +25%MEIA NOITE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN Academy remove Nuke
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Anubis
3. PickpaiN Academy take Default
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Dust2
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
6. BanpaiN Academy remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (39% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
paiN Academy 36%MEIA NOITE 64%
The model gave 64% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Infernoprediction missed2:13
paiN Academy 53%MEIA NOITE 47%
The model gave 53% on paiN Academy — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
paiN Academy 38%MEIA NOITE 62%
The model gave 63% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN Academy · 57%
Series resultpaiN Academy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3