BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukepaiN pick
53%27%
paiN · 13 mapsedge paiN +26%Astralis · 7 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
58%38%
paiN · 8 mapsedge paiN +20%Astralis · 4 maps
AncientpaiN ban
50%58%
paiN · 0 mapsedge Astralis +8%Astralis · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%33%
paiN · 6 mapsedge paiN +17%Astralis · 2 maps
InfernopaiN ban
56%50%
paiN · 5 mapsedge paiN +6%Astralis · 2 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
56%50%
paiN · 5 mapsedge paiN +6%Astralis · 0 maps
CacheAstralis pick
33%57%
paiN · 2 mapsedge Astralis +24%Astralis · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Ancient
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickpaiN take Nuke
4. PickAstralis take Cache
5. BanAstralis remove Dust2
6. BanpaiN remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
paiN 77%Astralis 23%
The model gave 77% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Infernoprediction missed17:19
paiN 53%Astralis 47%
The model gave 53% on paiN — the map was taken by Astralis.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
paiN 50%Astralis 50%
The model gave 50% on paiN — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 55%
Series resultAstralis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3