PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#23 in the world · win 2:1series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukepaiN pick
50%50%
paiN · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Back to Back · 2 maps
InfernoBack to Back ban
45%50%
paiN · 7 mapsedge Back to Back +5%Back to Back · 0 maps
MiragepaiN ban
44%50%
paiN · 5 mapsedge Back to Back +6%Back to Back · 2 maps
CachepaiN ban
20%50%
paiN · 6 mapsedge Back to Back +30%Back to Back · 0 maps
Dust2Back to Back pick
50%67%
paiN · 4 mapsedge Back to Back +17%Back to Back · 2 maps
AnubisBack to Back ban
40%50%
paiN · 1 mapedge Back to Back +10%Back to Back · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Cache
2. BanBack to Back remove Anubis
3. PickpaiN take Nuke
4. PickBack to Back take Dust2
5. BanBack to Back remove Inferno
6. BanpaiN remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
paiN 31%Back to Back 69%
The model gave 69% on Back to Back — the map was taken by paiN.
Nukeprediction missed13:16
paiN 53%Back to Back 47%
The model gave 53% on paiN — the map was taken by Back to Back.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
paiN 44%Back to Back 56%
The model gave 56% on Back to Back — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 90%
Series resultpaiN 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3