Circuit X Curitiba Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#40 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BESTIA#67 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2paiN pick
73%58%
paiN · 11 mapsedge paiN +15%BESTIA · 15 maps
MirageBESTIA pick
47%56%
paiN · 11 mapsedge BESTIA +9%BESTIA · 12 maps
Cachepossible decider
38%42%
paiN · 9 mapsnearly even -4%BESTIA · 8 maps
InfernopaiN ban
17%69%
paiN · 8 mapsedge BESTIA +52%BESTIA · 9 maps
NukeBESTIA ban
45%50%
paiN · 7 mapsedge BESTIA +5%BESTIA · 6 maps
AncientpaiN ban
50%50%
paiN · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BESTIA · 8 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
60%50%
paiN · 6 mapsedge paiN +10%BESTIA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Inferno
2. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
3. PickpaiN take Dust2
4. PickBESTIA take Mirage
5. BanBESTIA remove Nuke
6. BanpaiN remove Ancient
DeciderCache (38% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
paiN 43%BESTIA 57%
The model gave 57% on BESTIA — the map was taken by paiN.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
paiN 7%BESTIA 93%
The model gave 93% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
paiN 67%BESTIA 33%
The model gave 67% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 69%
Series resultpaiN 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3