FERJEE In House Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
paiN · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Bounty Hunters · 20 maps
CachepaiN ban
20%58%
paiN · 6 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +38%Bounty Hunters · 20 maps
NukeBounty Hunters pick
47%56%
paiN · 11 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +9%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
Dust2paiN pick
62%46%
paiN · 9 mapsedge paiN +16%Bounty Hunters · 9 maps
AncientpaiN ban
50%38%
paiN · 0 mapsedge paiN +12%Bounty Hunters · 12 maps
AnubisBounty Hunters ban
50%60%
paiN · 4 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
36%50%
paiN · 10 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +14%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Cache
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickpaiN take Dust2
4. PickBounty Hunters take Nuke
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Anubis
6. BanpaiN remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
paiN 14%Bounty Hunters 86%
The model gave 86% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by paiN.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
paiN 68%Bounty Hunters 32%
The model gave 68% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 75%
Series resultpaiN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2