RES Showdown 4 South America: BLAST Premier Rising Event · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · win 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2METANOIA Wolves pick
56%54%
paiN · 5 mapsnearly even +2%METANOIA Wolves · 9 maps
NukepaiN pick
50%57%
paiN · 8 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +7%METANOIA Wolves · 3 maps
AnubisMETANOIA Wolves ban
63%29%
paiN · 4 mapsedge paiN +34%METANOIA Wolves · 3 maps
OverpassMETANOIA Wolves ban
50%40%
paiN · 6 mapsedge paiN +10%METANOIA Wolves · 1 map
AncientpaiN ban
50%44%
paiN · 0 mapsedge paiN +6%METANOIA Wolves · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%56%
paiN · 0 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +6%METANOIA Wolves · 5 maps
InfernopaiN ban
40%43%
paiN · 1 mapnearly even -3%METANOIA Wolves · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Ancient
2. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Anubis
3. PickpaiN take Nuke
4. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Dust2
5. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Overpass
6. BanpaiN remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
paiN 44%METANOIA Wolves 56%
The model gave 56% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by paiN.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
paiN 55%METANOIA Wolves 45%
The model gave 55% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 90%
Series resultpaiN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2