Gamers Club Masters VII · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#40 in the world · win 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NNAOCOPULAS#145 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2NAOCOPULAS ban
75%50%
paiN · 12 mapsedge paiN +25%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
MirageNAOCOPULAS ban
47%50%
paiN · 11 mapsnearly even -3%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
CacheNAOCOPULAS pick
36%50%
paiN · 10 mapsedge NAOCOPULAS +14%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
InfernopaiN ban
15%50%
paiN · 9 mapsedge NAOCOPULAS +35%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
AnubispaiN pick
55%50%
paiN · 7 mapsedge paiN +5%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
NukepaiN ban
40%50%
paiN · 6 mapsedge NAOCOPULAS +10%NAOCOPULAS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Inferno
2. BanNAOCOPULAS remove Dust2
3. PickpaiN take Anubis
4. PickNAOCOPULAS take Cache
5. BanNAOCOPULAS remove Mirage
6. BanpaiN remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
paiN 73%NAOCOPULAS 27%
The model gave 73% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
paiN 50%NAOCOPULAS 50%
The model gave 50% on NAOCOPULAS — the map was taken by NAOCOPULAS.
Cacheprediction missed13:2
paiN 36%NAOCOPULAS 64%
The model gave 64% on NAOCOPULAS — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 80%
Series resultpaiN 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3