IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · loss 9:13series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 9:13
TYLOO#33 in the world · win 13:9The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernopaiN ban
40%73%
paiN · 1 mapedge TYLOO +33%TYLOO · 11 maps
NukeTYLOO ban
44%55%
paiN · 5 mapsedge TYLOO +11%TYLOO · 7 maps
AncientpaiN ban
50%40%
paiN · 0 mapsedge paiN +10%TYLOO · 11 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%69%
paiN · 1 mapedge TYLOO +9%TYLOO · 9 maps
OverpasspaiN ban
50%60%
paiN · 4 mapsedge TYLOO +10%TYLOO · 6 maps
AnubisTYLOO ban
57%67%
paiN · 3 mapsedge TYLOO +10%TYLOO · 2 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
63%50%
paiN · 4 mapsedge paiN +13%TYLOO · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Ancient
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. BanpaiN remove Inferno
4. BanTYLOO remove Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Overpass
6. BanTYLOO remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (60% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
paiN 40%TYLOO 60%
The model gave 60% on TYLOO — the map was taken by TYLOO.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 69%
Series resultTYLOO 9:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1