1xBet FRAG Season 18 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
67%44%
PAQT · 2 mapsedge PAQT +23%Rune Eaters · 23 maps
MiragePAQT pick
60%58%
PAQT · 1 mapnearly even +2%Rune Eaters · 15 maps
AncientPAQT ban
50%53%
PAQT · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Rune Eaters · 13 maps
InfernoRune Eaters ban
50%36%
PAQT · 0 mapsedge PAQT +14%Rune Eaters · 7 maps
CacheRune Eaters ban
50%56%
PAQT · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +6%Rune Eaters · 5 maps
AnubisRune Eaters pick
50%71%
PAQT · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +21%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
DefaultPAQT ban
50%71%
PAQT · 0 mapsedge Rune Eaters +21%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPAQT remove Ancient
2. BanRune Eaters remove Inferno
3. PickPAQT take Mirage
4. PickRune Eaters take Anubis
5. BanRune Eaters remove Cache
6. BanPAQT remove Default
DeciderDust2 (67% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
PAQT 55%Rune Eaters 45%
The model gave 55% on PAQT — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
PAQT 42%Rune Eaters 58%
The model gave 58% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 63%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2