IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#11 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9z#17 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPARIVISION pick
44%56%
PARIVISION · 5 mapsedge 9z +12%9z · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
63%60%
PARIVISION · 4 mapsnearly even +3%9z · 6 maps
Mirage9z ban
43%33%
PARIVISION · 3 mapsedge PARIVISION +10%9z · 5 maps
InfernoPARIVISION ban
40%56%
PARIVISION · 1 mapedge 9z +16%9z · 5 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
50%60%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge 9z +10%9z · 6 maps
Overpass9z pick
50%67%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge 9z +17%9z · 5 maps
Anubis9z ban
40%40%
PARIVISION · 1 mapnearly even +0%9z · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
2. Ban9z remove Anubis
3. PickPARIVISION take Ancient
4. Pick9z take Overpass
5. Ban9z remove Mirage
6. BanPARIVISION remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct1:13
PARIVISION 31%9z 69%
The model gave 69% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
PARIVISION 56%9z 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
PARIVISION 35%9z 65%
The model gave 65% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 57%
Series result9z 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3