PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#11 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2#7 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2G2 pick
40%44%
PARIVISION · 1 mapnearly even -4%G2 · 5 maps
AncientPARIVISION pick
50%67%
PARIVISION · 2 mapsedge G2 +17%G2 · 2 maps
InfernoG2 ban
40%43%
PARIVISION · 1 mapnearly even -3%G2 · 3 maps
MirageG2 ban
60%29%
PARIVISION · 1 mapedge PARIVISION +31%G2 · 3 maps
OverpassPARIVISION ban
50%67%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge G2 +17%G2 · 2 maps
AnubisPARIVISION ban
40%50%
PARIVISION · 1 mapedge G2 +10%G2 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Anubis
2. BanG2 remove Mirage
3. PickPARIVISION take Ancient
4. PickG2 take Dust2
5. BanG2 remove Inferno
6. BanPARIVISION remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
PARIVISION 77%G2 23%
The model gave 77% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by G2.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
PARIVISION 48%G2 52%
The model gave 52% on G2 — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Ancientprediction correct12:16
PARIVISION 33%G2 67%
The model gave 67% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 61%
Series resultG2 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3