IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#11 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Monte#23 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PARIVISION pick
67%45%
PARIVISION · 5 mapsedge PARIVISION +22%Monte · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
44%50%
PARIVISION · 5 mapsedge Monte +6%Monte · 4 maps
MirageMonte pick
43%63%
PARIVISION · 3 mapsedge Monte +20%Monte · 4 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
50%40%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge PARIVISION +10%Monte · 6 maps
AnubisPARIVISION ban
40%50%
PARIVISION · 1 mapedge Monte +10%Monte · 2 maps
InfernoMonte ban
33%50%
PARIVISION · 2 mapsedge Monte +17%Monte · 0 maps
OverpassMonte ban
40%40%
PARIVISION · 1 mapnearly even +0%Monte · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
2. BanMonte remove Overpass
3. PickPARIVISION take Dust2
4. PickMonte take Mirage
5. BanMonte remove Inferno
6. BanPARIVISION remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
PARIVISION 29%Monte 71%
The model gave 71% on Monte — the map was taken by PARIVISION.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
PARIVISION 47%Monte 53%
The model gave 53% on Monte — the map was taken by Monte.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
PARIVISION 33%Monte 67%
The model gave 67% on Monte — the map was taken by Monte.
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 67%
Series resultMonte 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3