FRAG 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UA#33 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NuTorious#204 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Passion UA ban
50%60%
Passion UA · 0 mapsedge NuTorious +10%NuTorious · 1 map
MiragePassion UA pick
50%60%
Passion UA · 0 mapsedge NuTorious +10%NuTorious · 1 map
NukeNuTorious ban
50%40%
Passion UA · 0 mapsedge Passion UA +10%NuTorious · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPassion UA remove Dust2
2. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
3. PickPassion UA take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:3
Passion UA 37%NuTorious 63%
The model gave 63% on NuTorious — the map was taken by Passion UA.
Dust2prediction missed13:0
Passion UA 43%NuTorious 57%
The model gave 57% on NuTorious — the map was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 84%
Series resultPassion UA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2