ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
PCIFIC#115 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Atreides ban
53%36%
PCIFIC · 11 mapsedge PCIFIC +17%Atreides · 7 maps
MirageAtreides pick
44%65%
PCIFIC · 5 mapsedge Atreides +21%Atreides · 13 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%53%
PCIFIC · 3 mapsnearly even +4%Atreides · 11 maps
DefaultPCIFIC ban
40%31%
PCIFIC · 1 mapedge PCIFIC +9%Atreides · 12 maps
AncientPCIFIC ban
50%40%
PCIFIC · 0 mapsedge PCIFIC +10%Atreides · 11 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
29%45%
PCIFIC · 3 mapsedge Atreides +16%Atreides · 7 maps
NukePCIFIC pick
57%36%
PCIFIC · 3 mapsedge PCIFIC +21%Atreides · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPCIFIC remove Ancient
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickPCIFIC take Nuke
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Anubis
6. BanPCIFIC remove Default
DeciderInferno (57% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
PCIFIC 28%Atreides 72%
The model gave 72% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
PCIFIC 69%Atreides 31%
The model gave 69% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by PCIFIC.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
PCIFIC 54%Atreides 46%
The model gave 54% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 51%
Series resultAtreides 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3